When #ebooks were first introduced and became widespread by Amazon there was huge alarm and anxiety in the #publishingindustry world that it would herald the 'death of #books'. Well, of course, it didn't happen, at least not in the way people thought. However, as they say, 'the writing is on the wall' - for #paper based books.
Warning signs
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Ominously, trade journals (that we read) are reporting a consistent year in year out and now accelerating drop in retail sales of paper based books.
Paper is not and has never been a cheap medium/material but is rapidly escalating in price due to supply chain issues.
#printing on paper is an expensive business in spite of technological advances such as 'print on demand'.
Print books are expensive to buy, expensive to store, costly to ship and heavy to carry.
Demographics
The 'older' demographic of readers and buyers that 'love' books is either dying off or switching their reading vehicle to #digital devices.
Young children love being 'read to' by their parents, but with ever increasing financial constraints, these books are usually second-hand, used, or handed down. Children, as young as four, often have viewing access (with their parent or adult) to digital reading devices. Older children and teenagers read on digital devices such as #smartphones , #tablets and #computers. That said, most children still love a paper book - but for how much longer?
Tipping Point?
So have we arrived at that feared 'tipping point' predicted by all those Amazon-hating doomsayers?
Well, as a publisher we need to listen to what readers want, how they access book #content and how much are they willing to invest financially in being an active 'book lover/reader'.
The world of #literature and books is vital for the sanity and advancement of civilisation, so a world without easy access to 'affordable' books is unthinkable. Many authors have written about the #dystopias that evolve from this; Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury being the most famous example. Publishers are already having to factor in the implications of political developments and retrogressive constraints in the US, the main market for books in the English speaking world.
So where does this leave publishers, like us, whose #business is to create, publish, sell and promote 'books'?
Predictions
Things are changing (again). In five years time, maybe sooner, such paper-based products as 'trade paperbacks' will have gone. There will still be a market for 'premium' hardback books at a high price and very limited volume.
Most high street (and airport) #bookshops will have closed or become 'coffee shops. Libraries will be 'internet cafes'.
Amazon (and others) will only be selling eBooks dictated by 'popularity' #algorithms and #marketing #promotion spending.
Secondhand books will thrive for a short period but will go up in price.
In education, textbooks will all be digital. Professional journals will be digital.
Conclusion
Is this a bad thing? Maybe not. Publishers will still be needed to prepare manuscripts, edit writing and provide all those services required by authors for support and marketing.
Writers will still write. People will still read but the reading vehicles will be digital.
Book launches will be zoomed and exclusive 'signed by the author' copies will be #NFTs (non-fungible token) traded with #crypto.
The losers? Well it's obvious - all those that manufacture and sell paper based products (like paperbacks).
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